GLOBAL WARMING




BY Spencer Weart(PRO)
 Climate science is full of uncertainties, and nobody claims to know exactly what the climate will do.
 It is very likely that significant global warming is coming.
The most effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time advance prosperity is to develop better technologies and practices
And the role of large corporations in this story has been mostly negative




Any theorist wishing to show that animal farming makes a significant contribution to global warming must explain why the trend in global warming does not commence with the rise of industrial scale farming.



Working out future sea level rise from the past:-(PRO)
Current rate (satellite data) = 3mm/yr SEA LEVEL RISE 
Predicting future sea level rise is toughThe last interglacial around 125,000 years ago is a period of special interest.
provides an insight into where our climate is currently headed
Tony:-(CON)  In all the papers I could access I noted a significant degree of uncertainty on timing.
Dunkerson (CON)The breakup of floating ice shelves does not raise sea levels. The collapse of ice sheets off of land and into the oceans does.
doug:-(CON)
People are beavering away at that problem which of course is a bundle of contextual complexity. A crisp or even acceptably fuzzy answer just does not seem available right now. 
steve:-(CON IPCC AR4 says there is a huge uncertainty in the ice melt (p339):
Riccardo:-the dynamics of ice sheets it not well known.sea level rise is not uniform and as far as i remember measurments in the Netherland have show a smaller rate than the global average.
Berényi(CON):-Let's calculate backwards. If current sea level rise rate is 3 mm/y and sea level is supposed to increase by 1 m (1000 mm) till the end of this century, the acceleration is 0.18 mm/y^2. With this acceleration at 2100 the instantaneous rate of sea level rise would be more than 19 mm/y (almost 2 cm).
Tha actual acceleration can't be more than one tenth of this value, probably less. Current 3 mm/y average increase rate is also doubtful.
No meaningful acceleration of sea level rise is detected in last century, based on past history 1 m rise by end of this century is dismissed.
Riccardo(PRO):-- your last claim ("No meaningful acceleration of sea level rise is detected in last century") is not true. Even with just tide gauges (you don't like satellites, do you?) there has been an increase in rate.
- your conclusion is consequently wrong
Berényi(CON):-there is no correction for vertical land movements.
global sea level rise is not linear in time as you assume. The zeroth order aproximation says it's linear in temperature 
 I dare you to show increase in rate of sea level rise using tide gauge data. Simple pronouncement is not enough. To appeal to authority is impermissible. Science is supposed to work through understanding.
PCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007:-Interannual or longer variability is a major reason why no long-term acceleration of sea level has been identified using 20th-century data alone 
Acceleration should somehow increase at least tenfold in the near future to cause harm. However, we are not talking about contingencies here, but foresight based on past observations.
Jeff:-the rebound of the sea floor that results from melting the ice, and also the change in shape of the earth that results from shifting the pole of rotation (slightly) as the mantle rebounds.
 focusing only on tide guages is a bit myopic.
SNRatio;- we have had sea level rise during years of little surface temperature increase, indicating imbalances
Charlie:-(PRO)expect an significant acceleration of the sea level rate of rise, with or without anthropogenic global warming
GFW:-nterglacial before the current one just happened to be warmer than this one - that's why it can be used in the way that paper uses it. The reason it was warmer is because the underlying orbital forcing condition was stronger.
Bern:- The eccentricity does change the total amount of solar radiation. Just not by a huge amount
JonMoseley:-
 greatest factor in sea levels is the shape of the ocean floor determined by plate tectonics. The effect of plate tectonics creating massive chasms and mountains reshapes the "basin" in which the world's ocean water sits, affecting sea levels far more than any other factor.

WEATHER FORECASTING;  EARTH QUAKE FORECASTING AND GLOBAL WARMING  ARE  NOT  YET PERFECT SCIENCES 








ELEPHANT AND THE BLIND MEN
Once upon a time, there lived six blind men in a village. One day the villagers told them, "Hey, there is an elephant in the village today."
They had no idea what an elephant is. They decided, "Even though we would not be able to see it, let us go and feel it anyway." All of them went where the elephant was. Everyone of them touched the elephant.







"Hey, the elephant is a pillar," said the first man who touched his leg.
"Oh, no! it is like a rope," said the second man who touched the tail.
"Oh, no! it is like a thick branch of a tree," said the third man who touched the trunk of the elephant.
"It is like a big hand fan" said the fourth man who touched the ear of the elephant.
"It is like a huge wall," said the fifth man who touched the belly of the elephant.
"It is like a solid pipe," Said the sixth man who touched the tusk of the elephant.
They began to argue about the elephant and everyone of them insisted that he was right. It looked like they were getting agitated. A wise man was passing by and he saw this. He stopped and asked them, "What is the matter?" They said, "We cannot agree to what the elephant is like." Each one of them told what he thought the elephant was like. The wise man calmly explained to them, "All of you are right. The reason every one of you is telling it differently because each one of you touched the different part of the elephant. So, actually the elephant has all those features what you all said."
"Oh!" everyone said. There was no more fight. They felt happy that they were all right.
The moral of the story is that there may be some truth to what someone says. Sometimes we can see that truth and sometimes not because they may have different perspective which we may not agree too. So, rather than arguing like the blind men, we should say, "Maybe you have your reasons." This way we don’t get in arguments.

 MY COMMENTS:-
WE HAVE EVOLVED FROM CAVES TO MOON IN JUST 5000 YEARS =JUST ONE SECOND IN HISTORY .
WE MADE FIRST CAR JUST 120 YEARS AGO AND THE FIRST FLIGHT 100 YEARS AGO AND THE SPACE FLIGHT 50 YEARS AGO
WE ARE NOW PROGRESSING FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE IN SCIENCE AND DISCOVERIES
 WE WILL OVER COME THE PROBLEM OF GLOBAL WARMING ,IF IT IS TRUE ,MAY BE IN MAXIMUM 100 YEARS TIME 
WE ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH KNOWLEDGE; TO COOL THE POLES; BY   JUST SENDING SATELLITES WITH SPREADABLE ANTENNAS ;SHUTTING OFF ALL SUN LIGHT TO POLES ,TO COOL IT DOWN 
 YES WE SHALL OVER COME